In a complex system (which is all of our natural world), our actions have consequences. Second - and subsequent order effects - are the consequences of those first order consequences. Second order thinking is an attempt to look beyond the first order effects and anticipate both the positive and negative second+ order effects.

"Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored" - Ray Dalio

To train yourself to think in second order and beyond, develop the habit of asking "and then what?" If you don't, you have a strong chance of causing more harm than good (Iatrogenics).

There are four main reasons people cause problems with only following the first order consequences of their decisions.

1. Not being trained/aware of second and subsequent order effects
   • Most things in life happen at the second, third, or nth steps.
2. A delay in the feedback loop (Negative and positive feedback loops), so consequences are not immediately seen
   • Confirmation bias makes it easy to willfully not see the detrimental effects our first order effects have on the second order. The producer-product relationship relationship is complex and easy to deny if you don't want to see it.

   "it's hard to get a man to see something that his getting paid requires him not to see."

3. Take unncessary action in the name of productivity.
   • Think policy makers justifying their position or an employee trying to justify their job. // Intervention is worse than doing nothing
4. A lack of skin in the game ((Antifragile #citation))
   • When you win if things go right, but deal with none of the consequences if things go wrong, you have a strong recipe for disaster.

A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case. All it means is that you’ll have less competition if the second and third order consequences are positive because everyone who thinks at the first order won’t think things through. - fs.blog (https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/)

Example

First order thinking would be akin to: "I'm hungry, so I'll eat a candy bar." The first order effect is that you would be fed.

Second order thinking would be to think through the consequences of eating candy bars every time you're hungry. And then continuing to think through the rippling effects those second order consequences create.

• Nixon never considered Iranian nuclear revoking - How Did Iran Become Enemy no.1?

Citations

#antifragile #toolong #zt