Taleb, N. N. [N N Taleb's Probability Moocs]. (2020, March 8). Why it's better to panic early: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam [Video File]. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/e2Kga5HeAqk

Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the reaction to the corona virus

[0:55] We don't know anything about the rate of infection. A lot of asymptomatic people, so plugging into a normal model doesn't give useful results.

[1:30] It's a very severe disease. Argue what the death rate is - but it's at least an order of magnitude more deadly than a normal flu

[2:00] If the rate of infection rises further, we're going to have a larger death rate because a lack of being able to be treated. Hospitals too full, resources stretched, etc.

[2:30] The paranoia we have today can be very helpful in reducing the impact that this disease has.

[3:30] Corona has a death rate smaller than car crashes, etc. However! If I don't act against my own probabilistic interest, I am helping corona virus spread and other people will die. - Meaning, even though I don't have too much to worry about personally on a statistical level, I will kill other people if I treat it as such.

[4:10] When talking about systemic things, rationality doesn't scale up. It's rational for society to be panicking; it's not rational for you and I to be panicking.

[4:50] If we have a significant outbreak, 10-20% of people will die. And that's a really severe disease.

[5:15] It won't always be just that the medical system breaks down. Consider the medical personnel that are infected and die or that just don't show up to offer medical help.

[5:55] This is why it's better to panic early. Reducing connectivity as early as possible would be best.

[7:55] You do not compare raw data if they do not have the same variance. Can't compare corona virus to car accidents, etc. Two different classes, not the same properties.

[9:00] I'd rather live in a world where I'm blamed for overreacting than to die in a world where we didn't take correct measures.