A "Black Swan" event is something that is so improbable that there is no prediction for it to occur. Actual black swans are a perfect example of a Black Swan event. Nassim Taleb defines it as an event with three attributes:

1. It is an extreme outlier - not within the normal realm of expectation
2. It is extremely impactful
3. We can look backwards and retroactively explain it, but it's impossible to look forward (Lost Cellular Automata Edges) to predict it.

Example

• A recurring example given in Fooled by Randomness ((Fooled by Randomness #citation)) is Russian Roulette. If there are thousands of barrels and only one round, it becomes easy to ignore that you're still pointing a gun to your head and pulling the trigger repeatedly.

Citations

• Source: https://fs.blog/2011/10/what-is-a-black-swan/
• (The Black Swan #citation)

#antifragile #toolong